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The Singularity is Still Closer than it Appears

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    A rebuttal to Ramez Namm: the singularity is still closer than it appears.

    [See the full post at: The Singularity is Still Closer than it Appears]

    Brad Arnold


    I’m not sure why we would want to give great weight to people like authors Ramez Naam ( or William Hertling for that matter), when we can ask people like Google company’s CEO Larry Page or Co-Founder Sergey Brin.

    “Google says that in the near future, AI that is fully reasoning is not a fantasy—it is inevitable. Google executives further stated that all citizens should expect that machines will be able to think and perform tasks better than humans can.”

    ‘Google executives indicated that a fully reasoning AI is inevitable in the near future.’

    BTW, I would describe the Singularity as the emergence of ASI (artificial super intelligence). I too am doubtful that ASI will rapidly improve itself, but then who knows what a mind more powerful than the smartest human will come up with.


    Optimally you want to pay attention to people and systems that are good predictors rather than from any particular background or lack thereof. Specialists are not always the best estimators of near term developments, especially if those involve a surprise or previously unpopular idea or theory. Some science fiction authors often turn out to be close to the mark or at least they are sometimes close. Evaluating predictions is itself a difficult enterprise and subject to its own vagaries and problems.

    Summary: We should, I agree, be careful who we listen to. However specialists do not have a great record for accurate predictions and it depends on the specifics and situation.


    Readers might enjoy this video from Stuart Armstrong about AI predictions.

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