The Virtuous Circle of Fantasy
Logically, if progress is accelerating, and progress depends on unreasonable people who act as outliers, then we must have more and more unreasonable people over time.
Category: Predictions
Chaos and Predictions — Trying to predict a floating leaf
Even when we know all the rules governing the motion of an object, and can determine precisely the initial conditions, it turns out that some motions can be predicted and some cannot. And it is not just a matter of complexity: we can model unpredictable systems with very simple equations.
The Unpredictable Freedom and Sweetness of Chaos
I’m going to share a productivity, planning and organizational hack that will change your life. It will yield some unpredictable results, but if you approach it the right way, it could bring some of the most amazing work of your life, along with freedom, joy, exhilaration.
To Survive, We Must Go Extinct — Apocalyptic Terrorism and Transhumanism
Perhaps it’s time to figure out ways to redesign our cognitive architectures so that people are less likely to adopt faith-based, delusional thinking about how the world ought to be.
Video Friday: Shane Legg – Machine Super Intelligence and the Halloween Scenario
Human level AI will be passed in the mid 2020’s, though many people won’t accept that this has happened. After this point the risks associated with advanced AI will start to become practically important.
Video Friday: The Future is Already Here — Nitish Kannan Interviews Dr. Phil on Health Tech
Many fields will be totally disrupted by 2030 as technology continues to grow exponentially and topple entire industries.
Fertility is Kaput, but Life Goes On
The mystery is not that we die after we lose our fertility; the mystery is why natural selection has permitted us to lose our fertility.
Semantic Culturomics
Newspapers are testimonials of history. The same is increasingly true of social media such as online forums, online communities, and blogs. By looking at the sequence of articles over time, one can discover the birth and the development of trends that marked society and history – a field known as “Culturomics”. But Culturomics has so far been limited to statistics on keywords.
Predictions of Futures Past — Intelligent Agents
Here’s a prediction I made about “intelligent agent” technology in 1993. How close did I get to our present reality?