Predictions

The Virtuous Circle of Fantasy

Peter December 22, 2015 12643 Views No Comments

Logically, if progress is accelerating, and progress depends on unreasonable people who act as outliers, then we must have more and more unreasonable people over time.

Chaos and Predictions — Trying to predict a floating leaf

Peter November 30, 2015 4419 Views No Comments

Even when we know all the rules governing the motion of an object, and can determine precisely the initial conditions, it turns out that some motions can be predicted and some cannot. And it is not just a matter of complexity: we can model unpredictable systems with very simple equations.

The Unpredictable Freedom and Sweetness of Chaos

Peter November 30, 2015 8378 Views No Comments

I’m going to share a productivity, planning and organizational hack that will change your life. It will yield some unpredictable results, but if you approach it the right way, it could bring some of the most amazing work of your life, along with freedom, joy, exhilaration.

To Survive, We Must Go Extinct — Apocalyptic Terrorism and Transhumanism

Peter November 17, 2015 16857 Views No Comments

Perhaps it’s time to figure out ways to redesign our cognitive architectures so that people are less likely to adopt faith-based, delusional thinking about how the world ought to be.

Video Friday: Shane Legg – Machine Super Intelligence and the Halloween Scenario

Peter October 30, 2015 4949 Views No Comments

Human level AI will be passed in the mid 2020's, though many people won't accept that this has happened. After this point the risks associated with advanced AI will start to become practically important.

Video Friday: The Future is Already Here — Nitish Kannan Interviews Dr. Phil on Health Tech

Peter May 22, 2015 4666 Views No Comments

Many fields will be totally disrupted by 2030 as technology continues to grow exponentially and topple entire industries.

Fertility is Kaput, but Life Goes On

Peter April 6, 2015 3509 Views No Comments

The mystery is not that we die after we lose our fertility; the mystery is why natural selection has permitted us to lose our fertility.

Semantic Culturomics

Peter January 27, 2015 12024 Views No Comments

Newspapers are testimonials of history. The same is increasingly true of social media such as online forums, online communities, and blogs. By looking at the sequence of articles over time, one can discover the birth and the development of trends that marked society and history – a field known as “Culturomics”. But Culturomics has so far been limited to statistics on keywords.